štvrtok, júna 23, 2005

Každá bublina skôr či neskôr praskne

Bill Boner o historicky najväčšom realitnom boome vo svete:

"Where others see enlightenment, we see rampant stupidity. Where others see geniuses, we see blockheads. Where others see the future clearly, we see only the murk of our own thoughts and desires. We have no idea what will happen, but when others bet that something extraordinary would become even more extraordinary, we are happy to take the other side of the wager. The mean would not exist if things did not regress towards it. The days get longer and longer until today; and then they get shorter. Gradually, the days' length regresses to a mean of 12 hours of sunshine, 12 hours of darkness. The trend does not stop there. Then, the days continue to get shorter and shorter until December 21st, when once again, they regress to the mean.

Real estate will regress to the mean just like everything else, dear reader. Prices will either fall sharply. Or they will stop rising, and fall gently against inflation. One way or another, soon or late, the real price of property will go back to where it always has been. Yale economist Robert Shiller predicts a 25% drop in residential property prices. The Economist hints at a worldwide recession when the air goes out of the real estate market. Maybe they will both be right."